Balaclava

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 91

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

75%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-02	Ellis Park	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-07-11	Ellis Park	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-06-21	Churchill Downs	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-05-24	Churchill Downs	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength56%

Delivery trend -26.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/05/2026	1st	16/1	16%	100%	+0.84
21/06/2026	4th	40/1	0%	67%	+0.67
11/07/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
02/08/2026	4th	14/1	26%	40%	+0.14