Heads In Beds
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-10-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 28/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 29% | -0.64 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |