Shameless Bride
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 82
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -16.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 31/07/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 18/01/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 09/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |