Stormy Paradise

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 87

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength85%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.3

Today:

Class gap: +2.2

Higher-class runs: 6

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-31	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-07-09	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-06-11	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-05-29	Churchill Downs	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2025-10-24	Keeneland	?	12th	5th	+6	5.3
2025-10-05	Keeneland	?	8th	6th	+2	3.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength8%

Delivery trend -6.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/05/2025	3rd	20/1	0%	80%	+0.80
07/06/2025	7th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
04/08/2025	10th	33/1	0%	18%	+0.18
05/10/2025	8th	50/1	0%	30%	+0.30
24/10/2025	12th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
29/05/2026	9th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
11/06/2026	5th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
09/07/2026	7th	9/2	76%	0%	-0.76
31/08/2026	6th	14/1	26%	29%	+0.02