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6

Twirling Claire

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 98

Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Fair Grounds 15/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 12015/01C7C6 @ Fair Grounds 05/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 92 · 5f110y Fm 117 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 92 par5/03C6OR 92C6 @ Keeneland 17/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 96 · 5f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 96 par17/04C6OR 96C6 @ Churchill Downs 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 97 · 5f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 97 par15/05C6OR 97C5 @ Churchill Downs 12/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 98 · 5f110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 98 par12/06C5OR 98C5 @ Ellis Park 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 100 · 5f110y Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 100 par10/07C5OR 100C5 @ Ellis Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 101 · 5f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 101 par7/08C5OR 101projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Ellis Park?7th5th+2
2026-07-10Ellis Park?3rd1st+2
2026-06-12Churchill Downs?4th2nd+2
2026-05-15Churchill Downs?1st0th+1
2026-04-17Keeneland?2nd1st+1
2026-03-05Fair Grounds?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0115/057/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%

Delivery trend -11.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20262nd8/158%91%+0.33
05/03/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
17/04/20262nd3/184%90%+0.06
15/05/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
12/06/20264th9/488%63%-0.26
10/07/20263rd7/282%78%-0.04
07/08/20267th11/271%14%-0.57