5
Nightmare Fuel
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 78
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 22% | -0.36 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |