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3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-01-03 | Fair Grounds | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 03/01/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 28/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |