2
Nut Bush City
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 70
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength74%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
Delivery trend -12.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 66/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |