Poppy Woppy
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 82
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
93%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |