Tizianna
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 87
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 08/01/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |