Transatlantic

4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 80

Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-17	Ellis Park	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-17	Churchill Downs	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-05-25	Churchill Downs	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2025-07-04	Ellis Park	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -30.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/07/2025	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
25/05/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	88%	+0.09
17/06/2026	7th	2/1	89%	14%	-0.75
17/08/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	50%	-0.38