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2

Big Boy Thunder

3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 81

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Churchill Downs 05/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 6f 1195/11C9C9 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 56 · 6f110y 120 · beat its mark21/12/2025 · OR 56 parC6 @ Turfway Park 08/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 65 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/02/2026 · OR 65 par8/02C6OR 65C9 @ Turfway Park 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 72 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 73 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 73 par15/06C6OR 73C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 74 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 74 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 81 par6/08C6OR 81C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 78 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 78 par2/09C6OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd-1th+3
2026-08-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th3rd+3
2026-07-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd-1th+3
2026-06-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd-1th+3
2026-03-13Turfway Park?2nd2nd0
2026-02-08Turfway Park?9th6th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1113/036/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/20259th40/10%11%+0.11
21/12/20252nd20/10%88%+0.88
08/02/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
13/03/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
15/06/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
14/07/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36
06/08/20266th13/266%55%-0.11
02/09/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05