Dontworryboutnothn
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-04-25 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +14.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 16/07/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |