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7

Gadget Play

3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 76

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

52%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 31/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS31/05C6C6 @ Saratoga 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 91 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 91 par18/07C6OR 91C6 @ Saratoga 23/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 92 · 1m Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 92 par23/08C6OR 92projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Saratoga?7th4th+3
2026-07-18Saratoga?2nd-1th+3
2026-05-31Churchill Downs?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0518/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 10-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -56.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20263rd15/261%80%+0.19
18/07/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
23/08/20267th11/893%0%-0.93