Great Moment
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 83
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-03-19 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-02-15 | Fair Grounds | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2024 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 27/11/2024 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/01/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 15/02/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/03/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 10/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |