IvyArcIvyArc
4

Native Brew

3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 84

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 08/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS8/08C6C6 @ Ellis Park 05/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 72 par5/07C6OR 72projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Ellis Park?5th2nd+3
2025-08-08Ellis Park?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/085/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20255th11/271%56%-0.15
05/07/20265th8/158%43%-0.15