IvyArcIvyArc
11

Sixer

3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 70

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Belmont At The Big A 01/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS1/11C7C7 @ Aqueduct 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 65 par10/12C7OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-12-10Aqueduct?2nd0th+2
2025-11-01Belmont At The Big A?5th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1110/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +40.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/20255th12/137%43%+0.06
10/12/20252nd12/137%83%+0.46