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Air Invasion

5yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 94

Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Colonial Downs 03/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 1m1f Fm 122 · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 87 par3/09C8OR 87C7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 27/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m Fm 114C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 31/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 96 · 7f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 96 par31/01C6OR 96C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 98 · 7f Gd 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 98 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 28/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 96 · 6f110y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 96 par28/03C6OR 96C5 @ Churchill Downs 30/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 99 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 99 parC6 @ Gulfstream 24/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 93 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 93 par24/05C6OR 93C7 @ Colonial Downs 19/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 90 parC0 @ Colonial Downs 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f Fas 11822/08C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-07-19Colonial Downs?9th9th0
2026-05-24Gulfstream?5th4th+1
2026-04-30Churchill Downs?7th5th+2
2026-03-28Tampa Bay Downs?1st0th+1
2026-02-28Tampa Bay Downs?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0928/0224/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/09/20257th14/126%14%-0.12
27/12/20258th20/10%22%+0.22
31/01/20267th50/10%40%+0.40
28/02/20263rd20/10%75%+0.75
28/03/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
30/04/20267th40/10%14%+0.14
24/05/20265th20/10%33%+0.33
19/07/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
22/08/20264th25/10%40%+0.40