4
Air Of Defiance
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 105
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
100%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 78% | -0.17 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |