IvyArcIvyArc
3

Bloodline

7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 87

Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Churchill Downs 06/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 99 · 6f110y Fas 120 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 99 par6/11C8OR 99C8 @ Churchill Downs 27/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 91 · 6f110y 120 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 91 parC8 @ Turfway Park 19/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 1m 121 · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 84 par19/12C8OR 84C8 @ Turfway Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 86 parC8 @ Turfway Park 19/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 86 · 1m 121 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 86 par19/02C8OR 86C8 @ Turfway Park 05/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 93 · 1m 120 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 93 parC7 @ Turfway Park 28/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 90 · 1m 120 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 90 par28/03C7OR 90C8 @ Churchill Downs 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 94 · 1m 118 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 94 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 10/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 90 par10/06C8OR 90projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-10Churchill Downs?11th12th−1
2026-05-22Churchill Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-28Turfway Park?4th4th0
2026-03-05Turfway Park?4th5th−1
2026-02-19Turfway Park?6th7th−1
2026-01-09Turfway Park?4th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/119/0128/0310/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +7.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/11/20256th11/271%44%-0.27
27/11/20259th40/10%27%+0.27
19/12/20253rd6/168%67%-0.02
09/01/20264th7/282%40%-0.42
19/02/20266th9/276%29%-0.48
05/03/20264th11/486%57%-0.28
28/03/20264th20/10%57%+0.57
22/05/20262nd25/10%83%+0.83
10/06/202611th40/10%9%+0.09