Dr. Storm

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 97

Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 7f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Churchill Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-08-06	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-26	Ellis Park	?	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-05-01	Oaklawn Park	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-03-28	Oaklawn Park	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-03-07	Oaklawn Park	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength23%

Delivery trend -8.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/12/2025	2nd	12/1	37%	88%	+0.51
28/12/2025	4th	4/1	79%	57%	-0.22
05/02/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	82%	+0.66
07/03/2026	2nd	14/1	26%	83%	+0.57
28/03/2026	3rd	3/1	84%	75%	-0.09
01/05/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	67%	-0.21
26/07/2026	8th	33/1	0%	13%	+0.13
06/08/2026	5th	6/1	68%	50%	-0.18
12/09/2026	6th	13/2	66%	29%	-0.37