Highly Flammable
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 14/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/08/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 14/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |