5
Saltwater Cowboy
5yo Horse · 8-9 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-26 | Lone Star | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/2025 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 17/03/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/05/2025 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 17/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |