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6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 98
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Starter Allowance · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lone Star | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |