Best Cupcake
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 82
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 21/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |