Dozen Diamonds
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 22/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 16/11/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |