Fugitive Star
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-04-20 | Turf Paradise | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turf Paradise | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-02-12 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 30/12/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 06/08/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |