8
Mombayla
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 08/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 11/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |