Spencerian
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 88
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 22/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |