7
Story Hour
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/11/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |