Sweet Note
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 28/12/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |