Tiffany Twist
8yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 09/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |