13
Lady Maximum
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 62
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 18/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |