3
Upstart Empress
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |