6
Danzig's Dora
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 83
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 18/12/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |