9
Lady Dreamer
6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 07/12/2024 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 18/01/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/03/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |