1
Progeny
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength2%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 01/01/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |