5
Q's Your Mama
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 81
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/01/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/02/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 30/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |