2
Tizntshelovely
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 89
Churchill Downs · Race 8 - Starter Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 16/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |