Aces Honor
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 101
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Woodbine | BHA93 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | BHA98 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 6th | +4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 03/04/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |