Brave Force
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 104
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA95 | 4th | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | BHA93 | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 18/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 07/09/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |