4
Corona De Oro
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 99
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength74%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | BHA98 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 11th | 5th | +5 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | -2th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 23% | +0.07 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 29/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |