Exosome
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 18/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 08/02/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |