3
Royal Causeway
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 105
Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 2nd | +5 |
| 2026-08-02 | Ellis Park | BHA101 | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |