5
Derby Hangover
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 71
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-09-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 20/06/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 25/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |