IvyArcIvyArc
6

Synoptic

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 64

Delaware Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Ellis Park 11/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f 11911/08C9C9 @ Churchill Downs 24/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 64 · 6f 119 · below its mark24/09/2025 · OR 64 parC9 @ Remington Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 60 · 5f110y Fas 118 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 60 par8/11C9OR 60C6 @ Sam Houston Race Park 03/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 63 · 5f110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/01/2026 · OR 63 parC9 @ Sam Houston Race Park 17/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 62 · 7f Fas 122 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 62 par17/01C9OR 62C8 @ Oaklawn Park 27/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 65 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 65 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 19/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark19/03/2026 · OR 67 par19/03C8OR 67C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 70 · 1m Fas 118 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 70 parC8 @ Ellis Park 31/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m 118 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 72 par31/07C8OR 72projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Ellis Park?7th8th−1
2026-06-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th5th−1
2026-03-19Oaklawn Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-02-27Oaklawn Park?4th5th−1
2026-01-17Sam Houston Race Park?1st3rd−2
2026-01-03Sam Houston Race Park?4th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/083/0119/0331/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/08/20253rd12/137%75%+0.38
24/09/20256th4/179%50%-0.29
08/11/20252nd11/1094%88%-0.07
03/01/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
17/01/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
27/02/20264th10/147%57%+0.10
19/03/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
24/06/20264th11/271%40%-0.31
31/07/20267th11/271%0%-0.71