IvyArcIvyArc
2

Flee

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 63

Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

87%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Aqueduct 05/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 58 · 6f 122 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 58 par5/02C9OR 58C9 @ Aqueduct 12/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 52 · 6f 122 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 52 parC9 @ Aqueduct 05/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 53 · 7f Slo 122 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 53 par5/03C9OR 53C9 @ Aqueduct 03/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m 120 · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 57 parC9 @ Delaware Park 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 57 · 6f 119 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 57 par29/05C9OR 57C8 @ Delaware Park 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 58 · 6f 120 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 58 parC8 @ Delaware Park 08/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 65 · 1m 117 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 65 par8/07C8OR 65C8 @ Delaware Park 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 71 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 71 parC8 @ Delaware Park 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 1m 117 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 77 par13/08C8OR 77projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-07-24Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-07-08Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-06-10Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-05-29Delaware Park?1st2nd−1
2026-04-03Aqueduct?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/023/048/0713/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/02/20268th20/10%13%+0.13
12/02/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
05/03/20263rd14/126%71%+0.45
03/04/20263rd13/266%67%+0.01
29/05/20261st1/398%100%+0.02
10/06/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
08/07/20262nd5/696%86%-0.10
24/07/20264th9/276%50%-0.26
13/08/20262nd6/594%80%-0.14