6
Lady Catalina
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 57
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-05 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-22 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 05/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 12/09/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |