3
Little Gussie
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 67
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +6.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 90% | -0.04 |
| 24/10/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 02/01/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |