1
Marlas Dream
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 62
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 33% | -0.62 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |